Young Boys host Sion for the Swiss Super League and sports bettors worldwide believe bookmakers have overvalued them. Home odds are drifting from 1.80 to 2.00 while gamblers are heavily betting on Sion’s shortening odds. Meanwhile, similar betting action takes place in the French clash between St. Etienne and Lorient. Will both teams fighting away from home score a win today?
If you are looking for a quick buck, these betting tips will likely turn you away. Both recommended tips are longshots at 4.50 and 6.00 respectively. Betting on underdogs have the negative effect of an increased variance. That means we need a big sample to figure out if our betting system is a profitable one. We may be betting correctly, collecting value, but there’s a high probability we run into a prolonged losing streak.
Our bankroll – and sanity – would have a much better chance withstanding the variance, should we pick teams offered at 2.00 odds. As a comparison, would you bet on a coin flip at 2.10 odds, or on a dice roll at 7.0? Both are value bets, but our betting capital will experience fewer ups and downs if we choose only the former.
Back to today’s betting tips, let’s take a look at the odds movement from the BetExplorer website, which recently included the opening odds as well. First, the Young Boys vs Sion game.
Sion’s odds have been shortening at Pinnacle from 4.25 to 3.95 during the last couple of hours. The difference is even bigger for less popular sportsbooks. For instance, away odds have shortened from 4.40 to 3.75 at Expekt sportsbook.
Over to the French Ligue 1 game, Lorient’s odds have dropped from 5.61 to 5.03 at Pinnacle at the time of writing. Yet, William Hill is still offering the away win at 6.00 at the time writing. I doubt though if they can hold the betting line at that point. I remind you of my recent article on how sharp bettors are moving the betting lines.
Are these betting tips per se? No.
I am just discussing odds movements; specifically the strongest ones at popular leagues, where sportsbooks can accept your bets. Question is whether shortening odds confirm the existence of value. Here’s a betting system, based on the exact opposite philosophy – meaning, the betting markets are, in fact inefficient! It’s up to you to decide whether you’ll trust the bettors who bet heavily on the away wins or believe sportsbooks were right from the beginning.
