I have begun testing out a football betting system, according to which I predict a win if the team’s odds are dropping.  Likewise, I bet against a team if its betting odds are drifting. Obviously it’s not a rocket science, although I need to spend a lot of time watching the odds’ graphs, since it’s necessary to place the bets 5 to 10 minutes before the kick-off time. I’ve allocated €2,500 as my bankroll for this strategy and given I’m willing to risk no more than 1% of that per bet, my bets are set at €25. My betting activity takes place at Betfair’s betting exchange, meaning I am able to lay the drifting odds and back the dropping odds. Here’s my profit and loss statement of the past weekend.


As the statement shows, I placed bets in 41 markets which equals to €1,025 turnover. By winning €120 the online betting system’s Return-On-Investment (ROI) or yield came down to 11.7%. Certainly that isn’t expected to last, as I consider a sustainable and acceptable ROI to be around 5%. In fact, this is almost the actual ROI if I take into account all the bets I have been placing since November 5th, when I first began testing the sports betting strategy. I am now winning €100 out of 101 bets of €25 as the following betting graph shows.


Drifters and dropping odds’ betting graphs

So, what do I mean by drifting and dropping odds in football betting? I have been dealing with Betfair graphs for years and I always wondered if dropping odds are a reliable sign for predicting a win. After all, if a lot of people are betting on a team pushing its odds down, they must have heard something. On the other hand, if layers are matching all the back bets sending the odds to higher prices, they also must have known better than me. Yesterday’s Nordsjaelland and Feyenoord graphs were perfect examples of those two lines.


I shared the image above at my Facebook page and hopefully friends and fans were quick enough to back Feyenoord and lay Nordsjaelland, as the former won and the latter lost! Still, that doesn’t mean we will win each time there is a big drift or drop of the football betting odds. Luckily though, I shared two winning bets that is always welcome when talking to people who are ready to trust my picks, whatever they may be! Here are three more Betfair graphs of dropping odds that led to just one winning bet (Toulouse). Thankfully, those didn’t cost a dime for my Twitter followers as I didn’t have the time to share.


I totally placed 19 bets on Sunday. The system’s betting history of that day shows a great start but a poor finish, losing 7 of the last 10 placed bets! Note the time I submitted each bet; just a few minutes before the games started.


I’m expecting to talk more about sports betting in the future here at Bet Stories, because I’m not in the mood of posting in my Greek betting blog following the recent news regarding Greek legislation about online gambling.