Oscar prediction graphs: Lincoln loses, Argo wins


Oscars-2013Plenty of 2013 Oscar predictions are expected to go public until the 24th of February. Experts will try analyzing the Oscar nominees down to the final detail, in order to give their best Oscar tips. Meanwhile, gamblers are already betting their money on 2013 Oscars and putting their money where their mouth is, providing possibly the most reliable predictions. According to the betting odds graphs, Argo is likely to win the Oscar award for Best Picture, while Lincoln’s chances are diminishing each day. The Oscars for Best Director, Best Leading Actor and Best Supporting Actress come next in popularity judging by the volume of bets.

Oscar: Best Picture

The specific Oscar award has always attracted the attention of gamblers worldwide. Its prediction market that is found at betting exchanges and InTrade is remarkably popular. Looking at the prediction graphs of the two favorite movies, online gamblers have pushed the chance for an Oscar win for Ben Affleck’s movie up to 80%! Steven Spielberg’s movie in the meantime has turned into a big underdog.


But when did the trend reverse itself? InTrade’s graph of Argo gives the answer to that.


Till mid-January Argo was definitely drifting away from an Oscar award. During the past few weeks though, lots of people wagered in favor of Affleck’s movie and eventually Argo traded places with Lincoln.


In simple words we would say that the betting exchange’s graphs mentioned in the beginning are more like the magnified ending of InTrade’s lines. InTrade graphs are showing valuable information dated way back.

Oscar: Best Director

There is nothing really to discuss about this Oscar. Steven Spielberg is a huge favorite in a rather calm market.


Oscars: Best Leading and Supporting Actor

Betting on the Best Leading Actor Oscar is also uneventful. Most people are predicting an easy win for Daniel Day-Lewis, who is extending his lead against second favorite, Hugh Jackman.


On the contrary, prediction graphs for Best Supporting Actor are quite lively and no one can reach to safe conclusions. Tommy Lee Jones and Christoph Waltz will most probably be the big favorites until the Oscar night, given the other contenders have a lot of ground to cover. Technically speaking, it is worthwhile to spend some time on this particular Oscar betting market, given a mini surprise by Waltz isn’t that unlikely, especially if his implied chance climbs beyond 37%. I have drawn the key supports and resistance levels in the graphs.


Waltz’ uptrend is even more obvious at InTrade’s graph.


Oscar: Best Leading and Supporting Actress

Jennifer Lawrence may pose as the favorite for the Best Leading Actress Oscar, Jessica Chastain and Emmanuelle Riva’s graphs are impressive nonetheless. Odds for Chastain’s win are slowly drifting higher, while at the same more people are willing to gamble on Riva’s win. In case the oldest-ever nominee for a best actress Oscar wins the statuette, the reward for gamblers will be quite significant compared to Lawrence’s short odds.


Regarding the Best Supporting Actress Oscar, the prediction markets show Anne Hathaway almost as a sure win.

Oscar: Best Animated Feature Film

The Oscar for the Best Animated Feature Film might get the attention of gamblers, who are looking for a market’s upset. While Brave is still the favorite having won the corresponding award at BAFTA Awards in London, Wreck It Ralph’s graph might raise some eyebrows.