Everyone knows that there is no such thing as a certain bet in sports. However, there are plenty of events that can be predicted with near-certainty. Finding those nearly certain bets, but crucially in conjunction with some decent odds, is something of a Holy Grail in sports betting.

In light of that, five picks for upcoming sporting events are provided below. They are aimed at mixing value and probability, so they will undoubtedly cause a little debate as to whether they are sure things are not.

  1. Rafael Nadal to win the French Open, 4/7 Betway
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA

While the price is quite low here for a player to win a Grand Slam outright, Nadal is the absolute master on the clay courts of Roland Garros. He has won the French Open an incredible 10 times in his career. Put simply, if he is 100% fit he will win it. The good news for fans of the Spaniard is that he looks in great shape before the tournament (21st May – 10th June). If those odds don’t dazzle, you Paddy Power have a market of 5/1 that he does not drop a set en route to winning.

  1. Germany win their opening match vs Mexico at the World Cup, 4/7 Betfair

This is something of a no-brainer – back the most consistent team in the World Cup Finals history. Germany simply do not let their guard down at World Cups, having made the quarter-finals at least at the last 16 consecutive tournaments. It is going to take a very good team to beat the 5/1 co-favorites. Alas, Mexico are not that team.


  1. Houston Astros win the MLB American League West, 2/5 Betway

The World Series champions have one of the best lineups in recent baseball history, fusing brilliant scoring prowess and excellent pitching. Again, those odds might seem a little short for an outright market, but they look almost certain to top the AL West. If you want to make it a double to increase the odds, you can add in the Cleveland Indians to win the AL Central at 2/7. It will be a major, major shock if either side slips up.

  1. Dublin win the GAA All-Ireland Football Final, 4/6 various

Dublin’s dominance in Gaelic football is on a par with PSG or Bayern Munich in their respective domestic football leagues. Over the course of a season, they simply do not lose. While GAA football is officially amateur, Dublin still have more resources and quality players than any of the other Irish counties. Again, it will be a massive shock if any other side but Dublin lifts the Sam Maguire cup in September.

  1. Juventus to win the Coppa Italia, 4/11 188Bet
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA

While AC Milan vs Juventus seems like a glamour tie, you must also consider how far ahead the Old Lady are of their once illustrious rivals. Juventus can call upon the likes of Higuain, Dybala and Costa, whereas AC Milan have a player on loan from Sunderland (Fabio Borini). Juventus will win this: if you want to back them in 90 minutes the price is around 8/11 from most bookmakers.