Tennis games usually include heavy betting and smart money often upsets Betfair graphs. Would you consider a EUR120,000 bet in set betting smart money though, or a desperate move by a gambling addict? I scanned the tennis markets in Betfair this morning, looking for the most popular matches – using the “Where is the money” option – and I was surprised to find out that about 270K euros have been matched specifically on 2-0 set in the tennis game between Radwanska and Peer and a mere 1K on the rest of the set scores! Radwanska is a big favorite versus Peer according to the match odds, but placing a 120K bet on 2-0 score is either smart money or gambling addiction! That was not the only strange betting though I noticed, since 30K have been matched in a single bet (with 38K totally matched on that market) on Jankovic vs Pennetta 0-2 score. What’s even stranger is the fact that Pennetta is actually the underdog in match odds!
It’s not the first time I’m talking about smart money moves in Betfair graphs. [intlink id=”1583″ type=”post”]Following smart money in sports trading[/intlink] has proven profitable for me when I traded the football odds of Espanyol to win Getafe 6 months ago. This time though the circumstances are different, as the bets have been placed close to the official start time of the tennis matches, leading me to assume that smart bettors waited for the last moment before making their moves. They certainly didn’t have the time to trade out before the off, nor did the liquidity of the events allow them to close their positions.
Would a gambler place such enormous bets due to his addiction? I partially doubt it, but I can’t ignore the sad stories of the past when gamblers destroyed their lives because of their passion. Yet, risking that amount of money on set betting in tennis games is not something that a gambler is used to, preferring more straightforward bets such as betting on the winner, or even quicker events like first game winner!
As I’m writing this, Pennetta has broken Jankovic’ service and is leading 1-3 in the first set, making her the game’s favorite at 1.54 live odds (starting off 2.25). That 30K bet on 0-2 set in favor of Pennetta is looking good! For the “smart money” it’s just another +EV bet, but for the gambler it’s obviously bragging time!
