Usually I analyze a Betfair market beginning with the shortest odds. In today’s Formula 1 Bahrain GP though I will start with Nico Rosberg’s Betfair graph, as he has managed to take the pole position during yesterday’s qualifying race. His betting odds have shortened from the highest of 200.0 to the lowest traded price at 4.00. The market has balanced at 10.0 at the time of writing, but earlier his implied chance graph found support at 5%, which is the equivalent of 20.0 betting odds. A good start from Rosberg would likely improve his chance of winning, pushing his odds to lower prices once again (and the implied chance to resume drifting). Unless it’s an eventful start at the Formula 1 Bahrain GP, I expect the support level at 5% to be trustworthy.
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Alonso is clearly the favorite of this weekend’s Grand Prix. His odds are shortening since Friday’s practice session. The downtrend’s support at 2.50 has been confirmed 4 times in the last 24 hours. The options for Betfair trading here are either to lay at 2.50 and set a tight stop loss at 2.40, or wait for a breakdown and back the Alonso’s win.
Vettel’s Betfair graph isn’t that attractive if you are looking to trade Formula 1 Bahrain GP sports odds. The sideways movement allows laying at the support level at 3.50 and backing at the resistance at 4.50, but given the dangerous Betfair market of a Formula 1 race, I would avoid trading this particular graph. Now, if that graph featured a long-term market such as the drivers’ championship or something, surely there would be less risk trading at the support and resistance levels.
The last F1 driver whose Betfair odds are still trading below 10.0 is Raikkonen. His Saturday performance that brought him to the P9 of the starting grid is the reason for the fierce breakout at the Betfair graph. Before that though, Raikkonen’s odds had been shortening approaching the 3.00 level. I am expecting the resistance at 10.0 to make it difficult for the odds to continue drifting, being a round number and the odds having already confirmed that level at least once. Another breakout would obviously shutter Raikkonen’s chances for any positive result in Formula 1 Bahrain GP.